MLB Betting Guide: Monday 5/10/21

numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, a runline, or moneyline.

For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.

Using our model as a guide, let's take a look at the best bets to make at MLB odds.

Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.

Cincinnati Reds at Pittsburgh Pirates

Over 7.5 (-104): 3-Star Rating out of 5

Our algorithm is pretty keen on this over, totaling a median projection of 9.0 runs in this NL Central matchup.

The Cincinnati Reds will be starting Tyler Mahle, which is a bit of an obstacle to the over. Mahle has a 3.73 SIERA since the start of 2020, paired with a 31.0% strikeout rate and 32.1% hard-hit rate.

For the Pittsburgh Pirates, they're starting Mitch Keller, who has been tagged for a 4.70 ERA since 2020 began. That mark is even worse from a SIERA standpoint: 5.85. That stems from a low strikeout rate (20.0%) and a high walk rate (16.5%).

The Reds are seventh in the Majors in expected wOBA, and they should be the majority source of runs. numberFire's algorithm projects them for 5.02 runs tonight.

oddsFire is also showing big action on the over: 69% of the bets and 87% of the money, which is, of course, very nice to see.

San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockies

Over 10.0 (-104): 4-Star Rating out of 5

(Editor's note: Tonight's Padres-Rockies game has been postponed due to weather.)

There are also heavy sharp money indications on the over in this game between the San Diego Padres and Colorado Rockies at Coors Field. There are 39% of tickets on the over, but that leads to 71% of the money, a gap of 32 percentage points.

Starters Dinelson Lamet (San Diego) and Antonio Senzatela (Colorado) are on different ends of the SIERA spectrum among projected starters tonight: a slate-best 3.19 for Lamet and a bottom-four number of 4.92 for Senzatela since the start of 2020. In that span, Lamet does allow hard contact 35.8% of the time, though, and that mark is 35.6% for Senzatela.

At Coors Field, that could lead to runs.

numberFire sees the over as 62.2% likely to occur, which suggests a return of 30.6%. The median run total in our simulations is 12.0.

Texas Rangers at San Francisco Giants

San Francisco -1.5 (+136): 1-Star Rating out of 5

While our model is a bit lukewarm on this recommendation, it still does lean on the home San Francisco Giants over the visiting Texas Rangers.

Both Alex Wood and Kyle Gibson are 3-0 on the season and rate out pretty similarly: they're both 81st percentile in expected wOBA and in expected ERA. However, Wood is in the 59th percentile in strikeout rate, and Gibson is 33rd.

The Giants are ninth in expected slugging, and the Rangers are just league average there. So the advantage does belong to the Giants.

oddsFire, once again, is showing big action backing the Giants: 66% of the bets and 75% of the money is on them to cover the run line.